Tariff Genie Unbottled – Can It Make The World Thrive?

Tariffs are like tolls at the border of progress. Zero them out, and watch innovation, prosperity, and collaboration surge.”

A 90-day tariff pause by a likely-returning Trump administration is more than a flicker in global trade winds. It is the unbottling of a genie that could either be squeezed back into mercantilist containment or be liberated to orchestrate a grand symphony of sustainable abundance.

The global trading system has reached a point of strategic inflection. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is on the cusp of transforming productivity. Converging technologies—blockchain, biotech, green hydrogen, precision agriculture, AI copilots—are tearing down barriers faster than policy can respond. Against this backdrop, the fundamental question is not whether we should tariff or de-tariff, but whether we can reimagine the very scaffolding of global exchange.

Let us dare to envision a world of zero tariffs, zero shackles, and a single unified medium of value exchange, where goods, ideas, people, and capital flow as freely as information. Such a system, frictionless and fair, holds the promise of exponential growth—one that is not extractive but regenerative, not competitive but collaborative.

The Pause That Provokes a Paradigm Shift

The 90-day tariff reprieve offered by the US is not a retreat. It is a deliberate recalibration, a negotiation window that masks deeper geopolitical shifts. Is this a temporary de-escalation in the ongoing battle of supply chain sovereignty? Perhaps. But it is also an opportunity to co-create a global commons where trade is no longer weaponised but optimised.

For Indian exporters, this moment demands agility and foresight. Sectors such as automotive components, pharmaceuticals, green tech, and services must use this window to expand their market presence and deepen bilateral alliances. Trade bodies must work swiftly to convert this temporary pause into a long-term strategic opportunity. A unified Indian response, rooted in data-driven export readiness and diplomatic engagement, is the need of the hour.

Squanderville Revisited: A Buffettian Warning

Warren Buffett’s classic allegory of Squanderville and Thriftville serves as a stark reminder: A nation that consumes more than it produces will eventually be owned by others. Buffett’s foresight, articulated as early as 2003, warned of the dangers of endless deficits, foreign-owned national assets, and an erosion of sovereignty. His solution, Import Certificates, was a clever mechanism to rebalance trade without triggering wars.

But today, we can go further.

We can leapfrog to AGI-powered productivity that eliminates the need for coercive trade-balancing tools altogether. We can decentralise ownership using tokenised real-world assets, enabling micro-ownership of production and consumption across borders. We can introduce planet-positive trade credits, where carbon, water, and biodiversity are as valued as GDP.

From Smoot-Hawley to Singularity: A Lesson in Avoidance

History is unambiguous: tariff wars result in tit-for-tat spirals, market distortions, and economic pain. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 deepened the Great Depression. The US-China tariff standoff of 2018–2020 triggered supply chain upheavals and inflationary pressures that still ripple through economies.

In contrast, coordinated pauses, like the Plaza Accord of 1985 or the Uruguay Round agreements, led to structural rebalancing, innovation booms, and wealth creation. The lesson? Pause with purpose. De-escalate with design. Negotiate towards a digitally governed, sustainability-linked trade regime.

How the World Is Reading the Pause

ASEAN sees this as a chance to increase bilateral flows and solidify regional FTAs with India, the EU, and others. The EU is recalibrating its carbon border tax framework to integrate with sustainability-linked trade metrics. China interprets it as a mix of pressure and opportunity to improve internal demand, de-risk from dollar dominance, and court new allies. India, poised to be the third-largest economy by 2030, must now claim leadership in framing a Global Ethical Trade Charter.

Supply Chains, Reimagined

Industries must treat this interlude not as calm before a storm but as clarity before a redesign. The 90-day window is time to:

n Reroute supply chains to India, Africa, and ASEAN—regions with growing middle classes and reform-ready governments.

n Invest in automation, traceability, and digital twins of trade operations to absorb future tariff shocks.

n Develop borderless service ecosystems with AI copilots facilitating regulatory compliance, dispute resolution, and ESG reporting in real time.

From Tariffs to Tokens: A New Global Medium of Exchange

The future of global trade lies not in punitive tariffs or even Buffett’s Import Certificates but in programmable, trusted digital tokens backed by real economic activity and sustainable practices. Imagine a Global Exchange Token (GET):

• Carbon-neutral by design

• Convertible to any currency

• Issued in proportion to SDG-aligned exports

Such a system—decentralised, accountable, and inclusive—can replace the dollar-based asymmetries with a fair, future-facing alternative. It will ensure that no single Squanderville ever overconsumes at the cost of global equilibrium.

Conclusion: Thriving Beyond Tariffs

The world doesn’t just need a tariff pause. It needs a policy reboot, a currency rethink, and an ethics-first trade infrastructure.

AGI is arriving. Converging technologies are dissolving the traditional boundaries of productivity. Let us not shackle this historic moment with zero-sum tariffs and trade skirmishes. Let us, instead, bottle a new genie—of global trust, regenerative economics, and ubiquitous opportunity.

If we do it right, this 90-day window may go down in history as the pivot when humanity chose thriving over throttling, collaboration over coercion, and sustainable abundance over scarcity economics.

Autor is a Futurist, Board Stewardship Leader